The Centre for Socio-Political Field Research conducted a survey in 19 cities regarding the main problems of the country and the developments that started when Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chair Devlet Bahçeli shook hands with Peoples' Equality and Democratic Party (DEM Party) Co-Chair Tuncer Bakırhan at the opening of the legislative year on October 1. 

 

The survey conducted between 27 October and 15 November covered the cities of Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Antalya, Aydın, Êlih (Batman), Dêrsim (Tunceli), Amed (Diyarbakır), Xarpêt (Elazığ), Colemêrg (Hakkari), Qers (Kars), Mêrdin (Mardin), Mersin, Muğla, Sêrt (Siirt), Riha (Urfa), Şirnêx (Şırnak), Wan (Van) and Zonguldak. One thousand 358 people participated in the survey with a margin of error of 3.16 per cent and a confidence interval of 98 percent.

 

The first part of the questionnaire consisted of demographic questions aimed at obtaining data on the social, cultural and economic profile of the research group, while the second part consisted of questions aimed at understanding the opinions, thoughts and perceptions of the research group on the main problems of the country and their relationship with the Kurdish issue. The third section focused on understanding the perceptions and attitudes of the citizens regarding the discussions that started with the handshake, and their suggestions and demands for a solution. The fourth section consisted of questions aimed at determining the voting tendencies of the survey group.

 

ECONOMIC CRISIS

 

In the section, the question "What do you think is the most important problem in Turkey?" was asked. 38.9 percent of the respondents answered as economic crisis-unemployment, 9.5 percent as Kurdish problem, 9.4 percent as current state of the legal system, 9.1 percent as lack of democracy, and 8.8 percent as conflict and violence. When the main problems of Turkey and the age categories of the survey group are compared, it is observed that the rate of those who consider "economic crisis and unemployment" as the most important problem increases with decreasing age, while those who consider the Kurdish issue as the most important problem of the country are in the 55-64 age group.

 

EFFECTS OF THE KURDISH ISSUE

 

In the continuation of this section, the impact of the Kurdish issue on the main problems of the country was also asked. Accordingly, 47 percent of the respondents stated that the Kurdish issue has an impact on the economic crisis-unemployment problem, 49.5 percent stated that the Kurdish issue has an impact on the democracy problem, 43.6 percent stated that the Kurdish issue has an impact on the current state of the legal system, 53.4 percent stated that it has an impact on the environment of conflict and violence and 54 percent stated that it has an impact on foreign policy problems.

 

In addition, 37.3 percent of the respondents answered "yes", 22.1 percent answered "no", 22 percent answered "partially", and 18.4 percent answered "undecided" to the question "Do you think that conflict and violence policies and cross-border operations have affected the current economic crisis?".

 

HANDSHAKE SEEN AS 'POSITIVE'

 

The survey included the following statements: "When the voting tendencies table for the elections of 14 May 2023 is analysed, it is noteworthy that 79.2 percent of the respondents who said that they voted for MHP think that the conflict and violence policies and operations had no effect on the economic crisis. Likewise, it is noteworthy that the second and third places are occupied by the proportions of respondents who voted for the IYI Parti and Zafer Party."

 

To the question "How do you evaluate MHP Leader Devlet Bahçeli's handshake with the DEM Party group in the General Assembly?" 43.7 percent of the respondents answered "positively", 27.1 percent answered "negatively" and 28.9 percent answered "undecided". According to this data, a significant part of the society viewed Bahçeli's initiative positively. 46.9 percent of the respondents who reported voting for AKP, 51 percent of the respondents who reported voting for MHP, 53.1 percent of the respondents who reported voting for YSP-HDP and 31.4 percent of the respondents who reported voting for CHP found handshaking positive.

 

NO FAITH IN MHP

 

To the question "Do you think it is possible for Devlet Bahçeli's statement to evolve into a new solution and negotiation process in the Kurdish issue?" 27 percent of the respondents answered "yes", 30 percent answered "no", 19 percent answered "partially", 14 percent answered "undecided", 8 percent answered "there is no such problem" and 2 percent answered "no opinion". When the age groups were analysed, it was stated that those who answered "no" to this question were concentrated in the 18-24 and 65+ age groups, and the rate of those who answered "yes" increased with increasing age. When the party tendencies of those who said "no" were analysed, it was observed that 39.8 percent of the respondents voted for CHP, 27.3 percent for Iyi Parti, 26.4 percent for MHP, 25 percent for YSP-HDP and 22.1 percent for AKP.

 

DEM PARTY ON THE RISE

 

In the fourth section, which aimed to measure the voter preferences and tendencies of the survey group and the mobility in voting preferences, the question "Which party did you vote for in the general elections held on 14 May 2023?" was asked. Accordingly, 32.7 per cent of the participants said AKP, 28.2 per cent CHP, 9.4 per cent YSP-HDP, 7.8 per cent MHP, 4.9 per cent İYİ Party, 0.9 per cent YRP, 0.7 per cent TİP, 0.4 per cent Zafer Party and 14.9 per cent said "I did not vote".

 

The same research group was also asked the question "Which party would you vote for if there is a general election this Sunday?". Accordingly, 27.9 percent of the respondents said AKP, 25.7 percent said CHP, 10.3 percent said DEM Party, 6.8 percent said MHP, 5.3 percent said İYİ Party, 1.2 percent said YRP, 0.9 percent said Zafer Party, 8 percent responded "Saadet Partisi", 0.7 percent "Deva Partisi", 0.7 percent "TİP", 0.6 percent "Gelecek Partisi", 0.2 percent "HÜDA-PAR", 7 percent "undecided" and 11.9 percent "will not vote".